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Tito Traversa Killed in a Fall 22-May-2018 At 10:18:50 AM Estey

Message

On 22-May-2018 One Day Hero wrote:

>I think there is a climbing-wide habit of rounding small probabilities
>down to zero, and then repeating the low risk action tens of thousands
>of times. In fact, it's a pretty common error that most humans make.

Understanding, mitigating and accepting risk is not the same as rounding it down to zero and pretending it doesn't exist.
>>
>>In the case of younger children I'm actually way more worried about them
>>at the crag when they aren't roped up and climbing.
>
>Yeah, but this doesn't negate the risks of climbing, it gets added on.
>You don't really care whether your kid gets crippled climbing or gully
>scrambling. What should interest you is the total risk you're exposing
>your kids to.

100% agree ... adequate supervision of non-climbing kids is massively important. Again you need to be aware of it, manage it and be comfortable with the total risk

I don't know about you but I get really scared when I see all those kids "bushwalking" out to Legoland and crawling all over blocs with 15m drops on the downhill side

>>
>>As for the percentage of kids maimed or killed ... that is out of my
>control
>>... all I can do is hope and pray it doesn't happen.
>
>Wrongo. The more risk you expose your kids to, the greater chance they
>will win the bad lottery. Along with all the other crag parents, your choices
>affect total population injury rates.

Agree with you from a theoretical statistical point of view. What I meant was I have no control over what other parent/guides are doing
>
>Bringing more young kids into climbing will result in serious injuries
>and fatalities of children at crags. Most of them won't be freak things
>like poorly assembled draws, it'll be the same basic mechanisms which kill
>and injure adults (inattentive belays, half-tied knots, loose rock, single
>points of pro failing resulting in ground falls, etc, etc).
>The important point is that these accident mechanisms are well known and
>understood, and we can't stamp them out amongst adults. You guys are deluding
>yourselves if you think the population-wide results will be any different
>with kids.

Agree accidents will happen. I'm not sure that last statement is totally correct if I'm choosing routes/crags/circumstances specifically for my child.
>
>>Not that much different than having a backyard pool with toddlers in
>the
>>house.
>
>I don't really think the benefits justify the risks there either.

Half a million Queenslanders can't be wrong

>>I believe that kids who grow up bushwalking, climbing, skiing, paddling,
>>canyoning, surfing, fishing, sailing etc are going to end up being way
>>safer in the mountains and on the ocean when they are adults. I'm not
>sure
>>exactly why this is.
>
>I think you're just making that up. It might be right, but it might not
>be.

Your right impossible to prove ... For what it is worth I did not make it up .. I have heard this independently from a couple of very experienced ski instructors and outdoor ed types. Come to think of it maybe the ski instructors where trying sell their wares.