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General Climbing Discussion

Topic Date User

Climbing is safer 15-Sep-2010 At 11:38:03 AM climbertron

Message

On 15/09/2010 b dubya wrote:
>On 15/09/2010 DavidC wrote:
>>Now it has been a long time since I've done any statistics and correct
>>me if I'm wrong. But risk from events like any activity such as climbing
>>etc after you have finish the event the risk from that episode will be
>>0 as you haven't died. So the risk will be the same each time you do
>the
>>event. The risk will only be higher if you say I plan to climb x number
>>of times for the rest of your life. The larger x is, the greater the
>risk.
>
>ie. the odds of flipping a coin for result x... the coin has no memory
>of it's last flip. the odds remain.

This is true, but think of it this way.... let's say a heads means you die, and you flip the coin 1 time, then the chance of living is 1/2. Now flip it three times, the chance of living is now 1/2*1/2*1/2 = 1/8. Much less, even through the coin has no memory.