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Chockstone Forum - General Discussion

General Climbing Discussion

Author
A storm in a tea cup?
Andy P
3-Dec-2017
8:35:14 AM
Well, where is it then?
How can the Met Office get it so wrong? We were led to believe it'd be floods of biblical proportions, batten down the hatches and sand-bag yr front doors.
My back yard's perfectly dry and we only got the merest of splashes last night.
Perhaps our self-opinionated 'expert on everything' and moral rainbow-scarf-wearing, moral arbiter, and fifth amendment pundit can enlighten us?

E. Wells
3-Dec-2017
1:45:40 PM
Maybe the bureau's accuracy rates reflect the funding cuts. Like all worthwhile services they are stripped to the bones whilst appearing progressive.

JamesMc
3-Dec-2017
1:59:44 PM
l reckon they did pretty well. Unusual events are difficult to forecast because they are at the edge of the bell curve where the maths doesn't work so well. We've had about 150 mm of rain at my place. Thats way more than normal.
martym
3-Dec-2017
7:18:50 PM
Met Office? Fifth Amendment? What country is this about?

Seems like Victoria sure got rained on though:
FLOODS PROVE DRAMATIC WARNINGS WERE JUSTIFIED: ANDREWS
THE STORM IN NUMBERS
■ Mount St Leonard, near Healesville, is the wettest spot in the state, drenched with 235mm

■ Half the state has received its entire December average already

■ Saturday was Victoria’s wettest day in six years, and the wettest december day since 1993

■ Residents in Kialla West, near Shepparton, are at high risk, with flooding expected to peak at 5.9m early Monday morning

■ Euroa has been hit hardest by floods, with Seven Creeks peaking at 5.1m

■ Minor flooding is expected along Wangaratta along the Ovens River, and along the Yarra River from Healesville to Abbotsford

■ Melbourne saw its wettest 24 hours since 1992, with the CBD receiving 67mm of rain since Friday, and more than the December average of rain in just 48 hours
Andy P
3-Dec-2017
7:36:40 PM
It's still bone dry here in Spotswood martym so go figure!

MisterGribble
4-Dec-2017
4:39:35 AM
"The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive."

I think Andy's right , and so does the Don .....
lacto
4-Dec-2017
8:30:25 AM
We had 100 mm at Tatura with are variation of around 20 mm within 8 Km of us . Murchison had 158 mm 25 km away . The 100 mm we got on 120 Ha that drains back to our recycle would be 120 ML of water . Normally you would expect 60 ML of runoff but we only got around 5 ML so the ground was extremely dry with so much water taken up by the soil. Rainfall predictions seemed good to me but risk of flooding here not high with that amount of rain . October 93 115 mm rain gave us 90 ML of runoff as soils were already wet and created major water removal problems

gnaguts
4-Dec-2017
2:13:02 PM
On 3-Dec-2017 Andy P wrote:
>It's still bone dry here in Spotswood martym so go figure!

Andy , Andy , Andy; you are just going to have to brush up on your rain-dancing technique , as what you’ve got going obviously isn’t working for you.
Martym
11-Dec-2017
6:54:40 PM
Mediawatch have vindicated your post
dalai
12-Dec-2017
6:59:12 AM
Agree with all the comments, but if the rains did come and they didn't provide a warning they would get canned even more!

As mentioned above - 235mm fell on Mt St Leonard just next to Healesville, so there was a chance such a volume could have fallen over the city...

I'm am annoyed too as i was heading up the Arapiles that weekend and not a drop fell there!

Eduardo Slabofvic
12-Dec-2017
7:25:02 AM
>I'm am annoyed too as i was heading up the Arapiles that weekend and not
>a drop fell there!

About 20mm for the whole event

ajfclark
12-Dec-2017
7:34:52 AM
On 12-Dec-2017 dalai wrote:
>Agree with all the comments, but if the rains did come and they didn't
>provide a warning they would get canned even more!

Think of it as a matrix.

One axis is whether the event occurs, yes or no
The other is whether BOM warns people, yes or no

When both match (yes, we're warned and it happens, no we aren't and it doesn't) things turn out fine.

When they don't things get interesting.

If it doesn't happen but we're warned, there's some inconvenience for people who cancelled things etc.

If it happens but we aren't warned, people might die.

So we have:





Warned\Event OccursYesNo
YesPeople prepared so less likely to dieInconvenient
NoSignificant risk that people might dieNothing happens


You can only pick which row you are in. Which would you prefer?

ajfclark
12-Dec-2017
7:40:36 AM
BTW the same logic can be applied to climate change:




Take Action\Climate Change is RealYesNo
YesImpact lessened so less people dieCleaner world, possible economic impacts switching energy sources, etc
NoWe're f---ed basicallyNothing happens


You can only pick which row you are in. Which would you prefer?
dalai
12-Dec-2017
8:22:09 AM
On 12-Dec-2017 Eduardo Slabofvic wrote:
>>I'm am annoyed too as i was heading up the Arapiles that weekend and not
>>a drop fell there!
>
>About 20mm for the whole event

I was looking at the Horsham rainfall totals. Looks like a few more mm in Nati then?

ajfclark
12-Dec-2017
8:47:50 AM
Horsham got 23mm from memory. They were having issues with the rain gauge though, 24 hours of:
-
-
-
-
-
-
Then one entry at 9am of 23mm, like it was manually entered or something. Notice there's a blank as the last entry in the rainfall for BOM's data for November: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/201711/html/IDCJDW3035.201711.shtml

Looking at December we got 25.8mm on the Friday then another 0.4mm on the Saturday.

Eduardo Slabofvic
12-Dec-2017
8:55:47 AM
On 12-Dec-2017 dalai wrote:
>On 12-Dec-2017 Eduardo Slabofvic wrote:
>>>I'm am annoyed too as i was heading up the Arapiles that weekend and
>not
>>>a drop fell there!
>>
>>About 20mm for the whole event
>
>I was looking at the Horsham rainfall totals. Looks like a few more mm
>in Nati then?

That was over three days, but probably the same 3 days you wanted climb

There are 16 messages in this topic.

 

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